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Explain various Decision Making Tools?

Various decision making tools are :-

1. Pay Off Matrix :– The main characteristics of the pay off matrix can be summarized as the follows –
a. Very commonly used method.
b. Acts as a very good quantitative technique.
c. Helps in summarizing the various interactions of the various alternative actions and the various events.
d. Explains about the probability in a very good manner.
e. The probability is expressed in terms of the percentages.
f. The probability can also be expressed in terms of the number of the times the particular event is appropriate to occur in a hundred trials.
g. With the help of the probability, the pay off matrix can be prepared.
h. The pay off matrix helps the decision maker a lot as it provides him with the quantitative measures of the pay off for each of the possible consequences and also each for the alternatives, which are under the consideration this is generally referred to as the Expected Value (E.V).

But the pay off matrix also has some weaknesses and these can be summarized as the follows –
a. The pay off matrix is very largely dependent on the decision maker’s judgment about the possible outcomes for each of the alternative and also the values, which are assigned by the Decision Maker to each of them.
b. The decision maker is forced by the pay off matrix to make a firm judgment about what he thinks may happen and the worth to him to those outcomes.
c. The pay off matrix doesnot make a decision but instead it forces the Decision maker to be more realistic about the various outcomes that are possible.

2. Decision Tree
a. This technique is also referred to as the Decision Tables.
b. Is a very simple technique.
c. Helps in the representation of the sequential multistage logic of a decision problem.
d. Shows the various decision paths that may be taken in – to account rather than the criteria used for the selection of a given path.
e. The main concept of the technique is actually based on the extension of the probability theory.
f. Decision Tree technique generally mathematically factors the degree of the risk into a business decision.
g. Very helpful in representing the various probabilities for the outcomes.
h. Helps the decision maker in working out the various options and along with this also helps a lot in taking care of the different types of the odds and further helps in making a reasonably precise comparison among the various alternative courses of the action.
i. Helps in the presentation of the analysis, when the decision maker has to make a sequence of the decisions and this is referred to as the Decision Node.
j. Then after this movement takes place on to the various options emanating points and this is referred to as the Chance Nodes.
k. The various steps that are to be followed in the process of this technique can be summarized as the follows –
A. First of all, the tree has to be made with the help of the various types of the decision points.
B. After this, the branches are to be added mainly for the external states of the events, which have the possibility of occurring.
C. Then the probability of each of the state has to be included and then followed by the assignment of a value for each of the unique branches.
D. Then one has to work in the backward direction as this step helps a great deal in analyzing the various consequences at each node of the tree.

3. Decision Rules –
a. The decision rules and the decision tables find their use together in the process of the decision – making.
b. Are generally used for the programmable or the routine / operating decisions.
c. With the help of the Decision Rules, one is able to make the various decisions very economically and also in a very much efficient manner.
d. Also the decisions taken are more accurate and also faster in the nature.
e. The decision rules are documented in the nature.

4. Decision Table –
a. Is very much precise and also very compact in the nature.
b. Is very critical for the analyst as it helps the analyst to take in to account the various options, conditions, variables and the alternatives.
c. Documents the rules that are used for the selection of one or more actions based on one or more conditions from a set of the various conditions that are possible.
d. Can include both the qualitative and the quantitative bases for the decision making.
e. Decision Tables are in the form of “IF” LISTINGS and “THEN” LISTINGS.
f. The “IF” listings stipulate the required conditions.
g. The “THEN” listings offer the actions that are needed to be taken if the suitable conditions are present.
h. The “IF” LISTINGS form the ‘CONDITION STUB’ and the “THEN” LISTINGS form the ‘ACTION STUB’.
i. But this technique can only be used in the conjunction with the other techniques.

What are the types of Decision?

Various types of decisions are taken by managements. Some of these are given below:-

1. Programmed Decisions

a. Very structured in the nature.
b. Are for short term
c. Work according to some of the norms that have been laid down.
d. The various situations of such a scenario are known.
e. Such Decisions are taken at the operating or the lower levels of an organization.
f. Are generally routine decisions.
g. Can be repetitive in the nature.
h. Certain particular procedure is needed to be followed.
i. The programmed Decisions can be taken with the help of the following techniques –
A. Habit
B. Computers
C. Operational research
D. Organizational Hierarchy or structure
E. Standard operating procedure

2. Non Programmed Decisions
a. New situations
b. Novel not cut
c. Dried
d. Very innovative in the nature
e. Long term
f. Strategic
g. Important and critical
h. Complex situations
i. The different techniques for taking the non programmed Decisions can be summarized as the follows –
A. Judgment
B. Intuition
C. Creativity
D. Business acumen
E. Training executives
F. Complex / specially designed computer programs.

The process of the Decision – Making
The whole process of the Decision – making needs to be very much accurate in the nature as only then the correct Decisions can be taken and ultimately then only the company or any department of the company can work properly and in an efficient manner. The process of the Decision – Making mainly involves the following set of the steps that are very much essential and need to be followed with great concentration.

The various steps are –
1. Determining the existence of the various problems.
2. Following this step with the generation of the alternative courses of the action.
3. Then one needs to analyze a particular course of the action.
4. After this, a particular course of the action is to be selected.
5. After this the implementation of that course of the action is to be done.
6. Following this step by the step, involving the monitoring and the following up.
7. Then at last, the course corrective action is initiated.

According to Griffin, the Decision – Making process consists of the following steps –
1. Recognizing and Defining the situation – An indication is provided by the stimulus suggesting to make a decision but a very critical point to be kept in mind here is that the stimulus can be either positive or negative in the nature.

2. Identification of the alternatives – It is very desirable that both the obvious alternatives and the creative alternatives become a part of the Decision – making.

3. Evaluation of the alternatives – It is very much necessary to evaluate each of the alternatives as with the help of this evaluation, one is able to get a complete knowledge about the feasibility, satisfactoriness of the various alternatives.

4. Selection of the best suited alternative – The best suited alternative is needed to be selected and this has to be done very carefully by keeping in mind the various situational factors.

5. Implementation of the chosen alternative – Once the suitable alternative is selected; it is then implemented in the system of the organization.

6. Following up and the evaluation – This step involves a great participation of the manager as he needs to work out and calculate the degree to which the alternative chosen in the above steps has worked.

What are the Styles of the Decision Making?
A decision can be taken at the various stages whenever it is required and the Decision can be made by the various functional executives of an organization. So it can be said that the Decisions can be –

1. Taken by the individual manager responsible for that particular department and work.
2. Can be consultative in the nature: – can further be either formal or informal in the nature.
3. The various group decisions can be taken with the help of the –
a. Co actions
b. Task groups
c. The interacting groups
d. Brainstorming
e. Delphi techniques
f. Nominal grouping technique
g. Consensus mapping

Write about Management and the Decision Making

Introduction
Before trying to get an in depth view of the management and the decision making, it is very necessary to completely understand the meaning of the word ‘Decision’. Decision can be defined as the choice that is usually made from the various available alternatives. For making a correct and the best decision, the role of the management information system is very much critical and necessary.

With the help of the management information system, one is helped a great deal in making the very effective and the efficient decision making. These decisions must be taken in a very good sense as a lot depends on these decisions; actually the whole organization is linked a great deal to these decisions. The decisions are actually made or taken by the managers or by the different members of the management and these are made by the various levels of the management and at different types of the stages that creep in during the ongoing process.

But there is a slight difference in the decisions that are taken by the different levels of the management; the decisions taken at the lower level of the management are actually very structured in the nature but the decisions that are taken at the middle level of the management are both structured as well as un–structured in the nature. But the decisions that are actually taken on the top level of the management are completely unstructured in the nature.

For making any type of the decision at any type of phase that occurs in any type of the process, involves the use of the different types of the tools, these tools provide a great help to the managers or the management.

Management – Definition and the Meaning
Management is defined as the process involving the planning, leading, organizing and controlling the different resources of an organization in an effective and efficient pursuit of the specified organizational goals. Management sometimes is also referred to as the art of getting the things done through the people. The survival, success and the prosperity of the organization depends a lot on the Management and also on the way by which the Management works and controls everything. In the Management, a lot depends upon the manager and the way he works and performs everything. So before going any further it is very important and necessary to completely understand the meaning of the word ‘manager’.

A manager is defined as an individual, who is responsible for the achievement of the various organizational goals and is also responsible for motivating the other employees or the individuals to perform at the best of their abilities.

Now days there exists an environment of the technology and in such a scenario the Modern management has a very important and key role to perform and that too in a very efficient manner. So it can be said that the Modern management in today’s world has become more of a science than an art.

Modern management now can be referred to as the science which depends a lot on the management information system. The various business operations should be handled very carefully with the help of the skills and the foresight; this forms the basic need of the business complexity and the competitive nature of the business.

In the modern management, there occurs a drastic shift from the traditional controls to the managerial controls. The major responsibility of the management is mainly to utilize the various available sources in a proper and a very effective way. These resources may be human, financial and physical in the nature. In the management, the manager’s efficiency increases if supported well by the management and if he personally possesses a good base of the knowledge along with a good experience and the analytical skills.

One of the major concepts underlying the modern management is the proper control of the resources. It involves doing the right things and that too in a very efficient manner. So in this way, the Modern management helps in managing the work, managing the people and also in managing the operations in a very effective manner and all this has direct affect on the performance and the success of any organization or company.

Decision Making
As explained above, a decision can be defined as the choice that is made from the several options by the decision maker that at some time helps the decision maker to achieve some of the objectives set by him during any operation. A decision acts as the very important managerial function and the decision making is said to be efficient if is supported by the following factors or the characteristics –

1. Sequential in the nature.
2. Influenced by the personal value.
3. Exceedingly complex in the nature because of the various risks and the trade offs.
4. Should be made in the institutional settings and the business environment context.

In an organization, the structure of the processes is such that the decisions need to be taken at various levels of the activity and these decisions affect the whole process a lot and ultimately the whole organization and is success is affected by the decisions that are finally made. The decisions that are made at the various levels can at times differ in the content, risk involved, complexity and the various implications. The decision that is made should be very efficient but this all can only be achieved if the person or the group of the persons is very much efficient having a very good knowledge and also the experience, with a good status of working for the company.

Decision Making Environment
A suitable environment is very much important and necessary for taking a proper decision and that too at a suitable time. An environment is ambiguous when some particular problem is not very clear or the goal that is to be achieved is not clear in the mind and hence it can be said that due to all this, the outcome will also not be clear. The certainty environment is the environment which involves the relationship between the inputs and the outputs i.e. the environment in which the result is known. The uncertainty factor creeps in when there is no awareness about the resources, input / output relations and the outcome also is not known.

Another type of the environment is the one where the result is not known and it may result in some profits but at other times losses can also be obtained and such an environment is referred to as the Risk environment.

What are the Prerequisites of the Artificial Intelligence?

The Artificial Intelligence involves the ability to be intelligent artificially and must possess the ability to come out with the human like responses and for the achievement of all these features, the computer must have the following requisite features –

1. Under – stand what is the ‘common sense’.
2. Under – stand the ‘facts’ and the various relationships existing between these facts.
3. Must be able to manipulate the data based on the quality.
4. Must be able to tackle the various exceptions that may creep in.
5. Should be able to deal with the discontinuity.
6. Must be able to inter – face with the humans in a ‘free – format’ fashion.
7. Should be able to tackle the various new situations that may arise and such critical situations should be handled based on the previous learning.

What are the applications of the Artificial Intelligence?
1. Financial Management
2. Manufacturing the planning and the scheduling
3. Factory Management
4. Project Management
5. Port – folio Management
6. Sales services
7. Field services
8. Geology
9. Distribution services
10. Diagnosis
11. Trouble shooting
12. Currency / Interest rates SWAP’s
13. Asset liability Management
14. Reading / interpreting financials
15. Criminology

Differentiate between Natural Intelligence and the Artificial Intelligence

S.NO. Features Natural Intelligence Artificial Intelligence
1. Sensor using capability High Low
2. Creative and imaginative ability High Low
3. Ability to learn from the past experiences High Low
4. Adaptive ability High Low
5. Ability to afford the cost of the acquiring intelligence High Low
6. Ability to use the information source varieties High High
7. Ability of acquiring the high amount of the external information High High
8. Ability of making the complex calculations Low High
9. Information transferring ability Low High
10. Ability to make a series of the different types of the calculations at a good high speed and all this in a very accurate way Low High

What is Artificial Intelligence?

Introduction
Artificial Intelligence can be defined as an area having over half a century of the history. First of all in the late 1940’s, the emergence of the computers took place and it was during this phase only that the Artificial Intelligence began in the earnest.

These machines have the ability to store huge amount of the data and after this step these machines process it into the information at a very high speed. Although the Artificial Intelligence was born in the 1940’s but it did not receive a great response from the various users at that particular time. It was only in the 1980’s that the Artificial Intelligence received the popular economic and the managerial acclaim. All along during this period, a large amount of the transition took place in the concept of the Artificial Intelligence and one of the main transitions included the transition from a primary research area to the potential commercial applications.

After this period of the major transitions only, the Artificial Intelligence was accepted as an emerging technology and got a very hot response from the different types of the users using it. The major reason of its acceptance was the fact that the Artificial Intelligence does – not replace people but in fact the Artificial Intelligence liberate the experts from solving the common and the simple types of the problems, hence in – turn leaving the experts for solving the various complex problems.

One of the major advantages of the Artificial Intelligence is that it helps to avoid making the mistakes and also helps in responding very quickly to any type of the problem that may arise.

Meaning and the Definition
George Luger and William Stabblefied defined Artificial Intelligence as “a branch of the computer science that is mainly concerned with the automation of the intelligent behavior”.

Dan Patterson defined Artificial Intelligence as “a branch of the computer science concerned with the study and the creation of the computer systems that exhibit some form of the intelligence: systems that learn the new concepts and the tasks, systems that can reason and also draw the useful conclusions about the world around us, systems that can under – stand the various natural languages and perceive and comprehend a visual scene and the systems that perform the other types of the feats that essentially require the human types of the intelligence”.

Artificial Intelligence can be under – stood as the technology playing a very major part in the application of the computers to the areas or the fields, which requires the basic knowledge, the perception, the reasoning, the understanding and the cognitive abilities. By having all this, it really becomes possible to distinguish the human behavior from the machines like the computers etc. Artificial Intelligence actually is the science and the engineering involving the making of the intelligent machines and one major point to be remembered here is that the Artificial Intelligence is related a great deal to the similar task of making use of the computers in order to under – stand the human intelligence. Human intelligence is also referred to as the natural intelligence and the below explained comparison between the Natural Intelligence and the Artificial Intelligence helps a great deal in under – standing the concept of both the Artificial Intelligence and the Natural Intelligence and the basic differences that occur between them.

What are the Limitations of the Expert Systems?

Limitations of the Expert Systems

1. The concept of the Expert Systems mainly involves a very narrow range of the codified domain.
2. The Expert Systems are not generally adopted at managing the highly sophisticated sensory inputs.
3. The Expert Systems mainly function in the domain of the extracted, cognitive, logical thinking process.
4. The different types of the multi – dimensional problems that are faced by the various users while performing the various activities, cannot be efficiently tackled by the Expert Systems.
5. Some of the typical Expert Systems at times are not able to make available common sense knowledge and the broad – ranging contextual information.
6. Very narrow range of the knowledge is incorporated in the Expert Systems.
7. The Expert Systems do – not respond well to the various situations out – side their range of the expertise.
8. The Expert Systems remain what they are – the machine experts.
9. The human self – awareness is lacking in the Expert Systems.
10. The various Expert Systems lack the much needed self – analysis tools.
11. The Expert Systems are non – self referral systems.
12. In case of the Expert Systems, no introspection is possible.
13. The Expert Systems have the ability of performing only with – in a specific, logical – oriented realm of the expertise.

What are the Applications of Expert Systems?

Following are the applications of Expert Systems:-

1. Make computer programming very easier in the nature.
2. Make computer programming effective in the working.
3. Transforms the computing by moving the programming technologies beyond the numerical programming into a realm of the logical and the symbolic programming.
4. Helps to solve the different types of the problems practically of every field and every discipline.
5. Play a very critical role in the different stages of the problem – solving process.
6. Have a variety of the complex applications in the different types of the fields that can be categorized as the follows –
i. Aero – space technology.
ii. Air – line aviation.
iii. Criminology.
iv. Education.
v. Security analysis.
vi. Port – folio management.
vii. Personnel management.
viii. Manufacturing design and the assembly.
ix. Food industry.
x. Health care management.
xi. Geo – logical data analysis.
xii. Interpreting the oil exploration drilling sites.
xiii. Tax planning.
xiv. Quality control.
xv. Quality monitoring.
xvi. Strategic goal setting.
xvii. Configuring the various computer systems.
xviii. Trouble shooting telephone network.
xix. Gene – cloning experiments.
xx. Foreign exchange management.

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